By Karen Rubin, News-Photos-Features.com
Inflation, inflation, inflation.
The “I” word is a constant refrain, achieving its intended goal of stirring anger and resentment.
Gas prices high? But they’ve been coming down for 7 straight weeks thanks to Biden’s actions, while Big Oil has posted record profits, tripling their 2nd quarter profits, and Republicans blocked legislation against price-gouging, so why are voters not angry at them?
Food prices high? That has a lot to do also with price-gouging, near monopolistic control by meat packing companies, as well as Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine, climate disasters, impacts of COVID on supply chain, and higher fuel costs of a fuel-dependent food industry.
But at least Americans have food and fuel, even at a higher cost – much of the world is experiencing much higher levels of inflation but also dangerous scarcity.
“Countries would love to have our level of inflation,” said Jason Furman, a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.“Our economy is the envy of the world.”
But what people are really upset about, but fail to articulate, is the “A” word – affordability. Affordability of homes, rent, college, cars, health care, prescription drugs – a problem for a decades, but more recently, reflecting the acceleration of income inequality. The very fact that billionaires added trillions to their worth during the pandemic and could push up prices for just about everything, certainly housing.
And because of that, the Federal Reserve’s heavy-handed use of its hammer – raising interest rates – will only make the suffering of ordinary families worse, while doing little to get at what has been spurring inflation in what economists agree are extraordinary times - essentially beyond the control of any administration – Ukraine, COVID, climate disasters.
Explain to me how paying higher interest on mortgages and credit cards – the Federal Reserve’s “if all you have is a hammer, every problem is a nail” solution - eases the pain on families having to shell out so much more for food and fuel?
Or rather, does it add to it, making it even harder for people to buy their first house or move into a bigger one to accommodate a growing family, or for a retiree to sell a house, their major nest egg , to have the cash to live out life? How does spending more on credit card interest to buy the groceries, gas, clothes and other necessities, ease the suffering of inflation?
And who benefits from higher interest rates? Not the grocery store owner, the gas station retailer, or the homeowner, and especially not the municipalities who will find it more expensive to issue bonds to improve infrastructure, climate resiliency and transition to a clean renewable energy economy.
You know how they charge “inflation is a tax”? Well higher interest is a tax, but instead of that extra expense going to a municipality to be invested in the future and improving the quality of life for residents, it is going into the pockets of financiers – financial institutions, credit card companies.
Raising interest rates has already pushed the affordability of owning a home – for most people their major asset, their nest egg, their ticket into middle class mobility and community stability – beyond reach. But this also has a ripple effect through the economy. Housing is a key engine for the economy, two thirds of which comes from consumer spending. When people buy a home, they spend money to move, refurbish, repair, improve, furnish. Housing starts after four increases in interest rates this year by the Fed, have shrunk by 2%, as mortgage rates have doubled to nearly 6%, again. Again, not a dollar extra goes to the home seller, but to the banks.
Meanwhile while demand has shrunk, the construction costs (that actually contribute to inflation) have not come down – labor and supplies are still in short supply and high demand. But construction companies along with small businesses now also have the higher costs for loans.
If chicken is an extra $1 a pound and gas an extra $1.50, there are ways to cope and compensate in order to stay within a budget – people are already changing habits to conserve gas (a good thing!) and can substitute pasta for a meat meal, choose a different vacation destination. And these imbalances are transitory.
But doubling the cost of home mortgage adds tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of a home, is a 15, 20 or 30 year albatross, and for many, puts home ownership out of reach altogether.
Indeed, it isn’t an inflation problem we have as much as an “affordability” problem (as Ezra Klein noted recently in the New York Times). Health care and college tuition have been rising at 3 to 6x the rate of inflation for decades and remarkably, no one has made the same Big Megillah as for the extra $1/gallon of gas.
But rising interest rates can and almost certainly do trigger a recession – especially because of the impact on small businesses who will find credit and loans so much more expensive, even as they lose customers, so may have to lay off workers.
Biden, who constantly acknowledges the suffering of inflation and has said it is his priority for economic policy, is more constructive in addressing the real problem: affordability along with jobs creation.
He deserves to crow about the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (a reconciliation replacement for Build Back Better which nonetheless has many of the same objectives):
Among the features: allowing Medicare to negotiate lower prices would bring down the cost of prescription drugs and lower health insurance costs for 13 million Americans by an average of $800 a year for families covered under the Affordable Care Act; breaking Big Oil’s bondage by providing tax credits and investments in clean, renewable energy which would also create thousands of new jobs and lower energy costs.
The Inflation Reduction Act would also fight inflation by reducing the deficit beyond Biden’s already record-setting $1.7 trillion, and all of it would be paid for by requiring big corporations to pay their fair share of taxes, with no tax increase for families making under $400,000 a year.
As former Labor Secretary Robert Reich tweeted, “Remember: one of the best ways to cut inflation isn’t cutting government spending, it’s raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations.” When you think about it, that’s a much fairer way to curb demand, without adding to the strains on working people.
Meanwhile, if raising interest rates is supposed to impact consumer demand, it’s working, so why is there surprise (horror!) that there have been two quarters of declining GDP (mainly because of unsold inventory). Republicans are already screaming that this is a Recession. While this is not yet a recession–jobs, wages and consumer spending are still robust- recessions are an inevitable part of the business cycle; one will happen, the task for a competent administration is to make any recession as short and painless as possible. Better, Biden is trying to structure sustainable economic growth.
But Republicans are doing all they can to keep inflation and recession fears high hoping they can convince people of their own economic malaise to win back Congress and that nobody notices they have turned women into second class citizens; have blocked assault weapons ban, climate action, voting rights; voted against capping the cost of insulin at $35 and alleviating the baby formula supply; and if they get control, intend to put Medicare and Social Security on life support and put Republican legislatures in charge of selecting a president.
Just how cheaply do you value your freedom, your autonomy, your self-determination, your health and security? $1 a gallon?
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